Weird Stuff (tinfoil hat wearing goons only, please) - The Bear and Badger

Yossarian

Diluted Dante wrote:

monkey wrote:

poprock wrote:

Occam’s razor, innit.

What is Occam's Razor for a flying object that apparently exceeds the limits of current human technology?

Someone was mistaken about part of the analysis that determined it apparantly exceeds the limits of current human technology

Yep. The answer was in the question. Specifically, it was in the word “apparently”.

Yossarian

Of course, if the readings turn out to be unimpeachably accurate, then the next likeliest explanation is that a human or group of humans have advanced human technology without this being generally known.

bad_hair_day

Yeah, but before we get into that old chestnut, just want to give Gremill props here,

Gremill wrote:

djchump wrote:

Probability-wise they’ll probably be crab-like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carcinisation

monkey

If, as reported, it can travel 60 miles in a few seconds, then that's not going to be current humans. Who's doing that? China? Why are they building cars that run on petrol when they've been sitting on that tech for possibly two decades? Why aren't there any other signs at all of this technological advancement? It could be something that tricks radar and bends light so they can't get a proper handle on what's happening. So, it's advanced but not as super-advanced as it appears. Suppose I would settle on that as the most feasible.

Order of probability as decided by me: -
1) My thing
2) Lies
3) Many separate equipment failures and inaccurate visual sightings leading to a fairly consistent pattern of reports.
4) Unknown natural phenomena
5) Super advanced human thing that can actually do what it appears to be doing.
6) Aliens / future humans - which are both so far out there that I can't tell you which is more likely but it's deffo future humans.

Whatever it is, it's a wild story.

Yossarian

monkey wrote:

If, as reported, it can travel 60 miles in a few seconds, then that's not going to be current humans.

It’s not a hugely likely explanation, it’s just more likely than it being aliens.

nick_md

So, ghost stories anyone?

yourfavouriteuncle

I’ve got one but it’s a bit late now for me to write it out. Remind me tomorrow plz.

nick_md

Will do pal

bad_hair_day

Yossarian wrote:

monkey wrote:

If, as reported, it can travel 60 miles in a few seconds, then that's not going to be current humans.

It’s not a hugely likely explanation, it’s just more likely than it being aliens.

That’s rather depending on discounting over 70 years of worldwide reports by civilian and military persons of these very fast moving objects that pay attention to nuclear bases, warships and mid-west bovines.

Yossarian

No, no it’s not.

poprock

nick_md wrote:

So, ghost stories anyone?

Hey, I tried to bring mushrooms into the thread, but no luck.

bad_hair_day

There’s a few tripping apes up in here.

GurtTractor

I'm absolutely with Yoss in that unidentified phenomena is massively more likely to be of human or natural origin rather than some kind of intelligent alien activity.

Like take this -

bad_hair_day wrote:

That’s rather depending on discounting over 70 years of worldwide reports by civilian and military persons of these very fast moving objects that pay attention to nuclear bases, warships and mid-west bovines.

Do you genuinely, seriously think that the explanation that it's some kind of intelligent alien species from somewhere unknown and thus far undetected in this universe that's just (rather sloppily) snooping around our puny and very recent civilisation for reasons, is more likely than any of the other possibilities listed thus far?

Based on what information is currently available to us aliens is basically the least likely reasonable explanation for anything, sitting just above gods and demons I guess..

If we could get a little more info about how common life is on other planets, and the possibility for interstellar travel etc then maybe we can start to push aliens up the chart.

monkey

Pods from the terraforming and seeding spaceship that brought life to Earth 4.5 billion years ago. Usually submerged. Surfacing periodically to observe, check development and anal probe somebody.

Dimension hoppers on a joyride.

Atlanteans.

Oumuamua eggs.

Guerilla marketing for tic tacs.

bad_hair_day

‘It can’t be’ seems a very human way of looking at things especially if it’s beyond our current understanding.

Perhaps dimensional travel rather than interstellar origin which would explain the distance and reported likeness to us. In any case, roll on the James Web Telescope.

GurtTractor

I'm not saying 'it can't be'?.. Of course it could be, but there are many other explanations that I would put ahead of aliens, explanations that while also very unlikely, are far more likely than 'aliens'.

Gremill

Yossarian wrote:

monkey wrote:

If, as reported, it can travel 60 miles in a few seconds, then that's not going to be current humans.

It’s not a hugely likely explanation, it’s just more likely than it being aliens.

Wait, so time travelling humans is more likely than aliens?

yourfavouriteuncle

We all already knew you’d written that. From in the future.

Yossarian

Gremill wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

monkey wrote:

If, as reported, it can travel 60 miles in a few seconds, then that's not going to be current humans.

It’s not a hugely likely explanation, it’s just more likely than it being aliens.

Wait, so time travelling humans is more likely than aliens?

Not time travelling, contemporary humans with access to more advanced tech than the rest of us.

bad_hair_day

djchump

If we're talking probability - how many times in the entire history of UFOs/UAPs has it turned out to be aliens? And how many times has it turned out to be something fairly simple and not-alien?

The whole idea that there's a "secret advanced cabal conspiracy of advanced tech beyond the current known cutting edge" is as ridiculous as the idea that the Empire could build an entire Death Star space station in secret without needing any kind of external contractors that would immediately tell their mates about it down the space-pub.

I mean, I really hope it doesn't turn out to be aliens, because it it's true, they would have to be the most comically stupid and inept fuckwits of an "advanced alien species" to have possibly existed in the entire galaxy, given their shitwitted antics on this planet. They're less likely to "shepherd the human race to a higher level of existence to join the galactic diaspora" and more likely to kill us all in a catastrophic black-hole incident when they start their spaceship after forgetting they'd left their warp drives in reverse gear.

Yossarian

djchump wrote:

The whole idea that there's a "secret advanced cabal conspiracy of advanced tech beyond the current known cutting edge" is as ridiculous as the idea that the Empire could build an entire Death Star space station in secret without needing any kind of external contractors that would immediately tell their mates about it down the space-pub.

We know full well that militaries have created advanced tech which they’ve kept hidden for many years, so the question is more of degree, how much more advanced than what we currently are aware of could current military tech be?

But I digress, I was mostly trying to give an example of something that remains more likely than aliens. I still think that the most likely explanation for most of these things is misidentifying things which aren’t mysterious or unknown at all.

bad_hair_day

Probability says most of this phenomena historically has not been reported or acted on because of stigma and career tanking risk, so there’s an even larger base of objects to dismiss.

Only takes one to make it so though.

djchump wrote:

I mean, I really hope it doesn't turn out to be aliens, because it it's true, they would have to be the most comically stupid and inept fuckwits of an "advanced alien species" to have possibly existed in the entire galaxy, given their shitwitted antics on this planet. They're less likely to "shepherd the human race to a higher level of existence to join the galactic diaspora" and more likely to kill us all in a catastrophic black-hole incident when they start their spaceship after forgetting they'd left their warp drives in reverse gear.

If it is intelligence(s) they’ve done a pretty good job evading detection, from the masses at least.

dynamiteReady

djchump wrote:

The whole idea that there's a "secret advanced cabal conspiracy of advanced tech beyond the current known cutting edge" is as ridiculous as the idea that the Empire could build an entire Death Star space station in secret without needing any kind of external contractors that would immediately tell their mates about it down the space-pub.

Come now. Even in the games industry, it's easy to imagine that a number of the bigger vendors are playing about with tech that is many, many years ahead of consumer tech. Evidence of that leaks all the time.

I'd remembered an article in CVG back in the mid/late 90s that rumoured Ninty did a deal with some company over Gyroscopes. And that rumour was ratified a number of years after that, and flew under everyone's radar too - https://www.wired.com/2007/08/history-lesson/ - The Wii came out no less than 5 years after that.

The fuck if the Chinese, Russian and the United States military aren't just a little better than that, with keeping R&D secrets over a number of years.

Though I accept that this discussion is centring on some mental shit, and we await proof.

Edit - to update the timeline.

Facewon

https://youtu.be/T-A_OPWa5VI

Re covid. I realise you guys aren't going quite the angle of bio attack, but gotta be careful with claims about it, lest you look like a raving loony.

Armitage_Shankburn

There is no doubt in my mind that covid is an escaped lab leak. I don't see what the point is of posting a "China attack" debunking video, it doesn't debunk a leak. Until someone finds the virus it mutated from in bats, I'll go with a leak from the Wuhan lab where someone was, on the record, experimenting with coronavirus and how it might attack humans. It's not a conspiracy theory, it's Occam's razor.

dynamiteReady

According to the article I posted a page ago, I'm still willing to believe Covid could have a natural cause.

The nearest analogue was that Spanish flu pandemic in the 1930s. That's was pretty well documented, and is widely believed to have a natural cause.

Not everything is like that though. HIV, for example, is still extremely confusing, and furthermore, is effectively a taboo subject.

Djornson

monkey wrote:

It could be something that tricks radar and bends light so they can't get a proper handle on what's happening. So, it's advanced but not as super-advanced as it appears.

That's a very interesting theory. That sort of thing seems plausibly within the reach of military research type stuff to me.

Possibly it's some country you wouldn't expect who has this technology somehow. For example i've been listening to a podcast about some of the amazing hacking stuff North Korea are doing and they are funding it with illegal weapons and drugs. So like, just cos not superpower, doesn't mean cant do stuff.

GooberTheHat

dynamiteReady wrote:

According to the article I posted a page ago, I'm still willing to believe Covid could have a natural cause.

The nearest analogue was that Spanish flu pandemic in the 1930s. That's was pretty well documented, and is widely believed to have a natural cause.

Not everything is like that though. HIV, for example, is still extremely confusing, and furthermore, is effectively a taboo subject.

The role the USSR played in promoting false narratives around HIV and AIDS is pretty well documented.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2017/jun/14/russian-fake-news-is-not-new-soviet-aids-propaganda-cost-countless-lives

Facewon

I loose track of the various theories.

But from what I've read, which is not exhaustive, the overall feeling is that it's natural and the lab leak concept can't be ruled out, but is unlikely.

https://twitter.com/C_Kavanagh/status/1393381074651078658?s=19

https://twitter.com/C_Kavanagh/status/1394822454229422080?s=19

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